Preseason predictions

[RichH]

PL poll has us at 7th. Gate at 1 and Bucknell at 2. IMO way way too low. I hope.

[jimk72]

The poll shows respect for the incoming classes at American & Loyola. We have no three stars in our incoming class. But as we've found out over time, it don't matter 'til they play the games. Based only on what I've read, I'm happy with the new group and still think we will have at least one if not two freshman starters.

[Bison_137]

The poll shows respect for the incoming classes at American & Loyola. We have no three stars in our incoming class. But as we've found out over time, it don't matter 'til they play the games. Based only on what I've read, I'm happy with the new group and still think we will have at least one if not two freshman starters.

I agree that LU is a bit too low. I picked them tied for 5th with Loyola. But I think that places 2-6 are fairly close.

Poll definitely is showing respect for the two Loyola incoming Spaniards. Not sure that American has any frosh that move the needle much, but they do have a transfer from Minnesota who is now eligible, and they return three starters from a 4th place team - including two-time preseason POY Sa'eed Nelson.

[jimk72]

KenPom now updated for 2019-20. Obviously a guess on his part this early, based on returning talent. He thinks we win against Monmouth in the opener at home and then lose the rest of the ooc schedule (excluding the D3 scrimmages). Again, the freshman have to be good for this to be a winning season. A real test of this staff's coaching ability.

[Bison_137]

KenPom now updated for 2019-20. Obviously a guess on his part this early, based on returning talent. He thinks we win against Monmouth in the opener at home and then lose the rest of the ooc schedule (excluding the D3 scrimmages). Again, the freshman have to be good for this to be a winning season. A real test of this staff's coaching ability.

He has LU as an underdog in the other OOC games, but he does project LU to win a total of 4 OOC games. He doesn't really project wins and losses, just probabilities.

[jimk72]

The probabilities in each game suggests they will lose all but one D1 OOC game. The probability of the OOC games taken together suggest they will some how get lucky in one other D1 game. I hated that course.

[jimk72]

The probabilities in each game suggests they will lose all but one D1 OOC game. The probability of the OOC games taken together suggest they will some how get lucky in one other D1 game. I hated that course.

[Bison_137]

The probabilities in each game suggests they will lose all but one D1 OOC game.

The only way to calculate the expected number of wins/losses is to add up the probabilities. Otherwise you get a deceptive answer. For example, if a team was playing ten OOC games and had a 45% probability of winning each of the ten, you wouldn't expect them to go 0-10 in what were expected to all be close games. (In fact the correct expected value would be for the team to win 4.5 games.) The Pomeroy data suggests LU will win two D1 OOC games. We just don't know which two.

[van]

I see us having 4 quality starters and 1 unknown starter that should turn out to be a quality person, second team made up of a lot of FR which could be great or a total bust, right now who knows