Arizona State Preview

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
Spladle1989
Posts: 2687
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:41 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by Spladle1989 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:36 am

McGonagle at 149? Different.....


LU in the Hub
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:23 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by LU in the Hub » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:10 am

jdalu75 wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:07 pm Well, since someone invoke Wrestlestat, they pick Lehigh winning 21-11, and that's with Maruca upsetting Hoffman.
Can't figure out how wrestlestat's pick method can be so at odds with its ranking method. Hoffman is higher ranked (their rank, CP and RPI), with a better record vs common opponents and has won a head to head win this season.

I can't even think of a factor that ws could be weighting to make the pick come out for Maruca. Not that he can't win, but how is ws picking him?

https://www.win-magazine.com/2020/02/wi ... son-duals/

WIN magazine has a lead-in using AZ State vs Lehigh in their article on final season duals
NEWTON, Iowa — As college wrestling heads into its final week of the regular season, individuals will be trying to improve on their post-season seeds for both conference/qualifier tournaments and the NCAAs — including in several Top-10 matchups this weekend like the Arizona State vs. Lehigh dual — according to WIN Magazine’s Feb. 17 Rankings, presented by Cliff Keen Athletic.

The Sun Devils vs. Mountain Hawks dual, Friday night in Bethlehem, Pa., will feature a battle between Lehigh’s No. 5 Brandon Paetzell vs. No. 8 Brandon Courtney at 125; Lehigh’s No. 3 Jordan Kutler vs. ASU’s No. 10 Anthony Valencia at 174; and at heavyweight where Lehigh’s No. 7 Jordan Wood takes on ASU’s No. 8 Tanner Hall.
Oracle
Posts: 2395
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:47 am
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by Oracle » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:20 am

Spladle1989 wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:36 am McGonagle at 149? Different.....
>>>>> Sounds like he just doesn't want to cut weight but wants to compete. It's meaningless to him so I suppose he has a point. That and why go against Hynes who he sees everyday in practice?
Richb-3
Posts: 2329
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:40 am
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by Richb-3 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 am

LU in the Hub wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:10 am
jdalu75 wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:07 pm Well, since someone invoke Wrestlestat, they pick Lehigh winning 21-11, and that's with Maruca upsetting Hoffman.
Can't figure out how wrestlestat's pick method can be so at odds with its ranking method. Hoffman is higher ranked (their rank, CP and RPI), with a better record vs common opponents and has won a head to head win this season.
[/quote]

It is possible that WS has, as part of an algorithm, conclude that if a wrestler defaults, and is out for (for example) 5 weeks, it will be 5 weeks after his return until fully ready, For Hoffman it is 3 weeks for so, He does not quite yet look like the wrestler who beat Verkleden and Eddins. But apparently Maruca does not look like the guy who only lost to Jimmy by 4-1. So

My take, overall.

AzSU solid fav at 165 and 184

Kutler #3 wrestling #9 w ould not normally be considered that heavy a fav, except he has not been upset since his first weekend in the lineup, at Journeyman, so I consider him solid favorite.

The other 7 bouts, we are underdogs, slight, at the last two, and slight favs at the other 5,

A sure win (18-18 with the TB) is winning 5 of the 7 with no bonus in two losses, (not that I expect Shields and Z to pin)

Note this is not a prediction, merely an assessment
jdalu75
Posts: 2074
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:33 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by jdalu75 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:10 am

gimpeltf wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:11 am
Nick farro Lehigh University College 133
Jaret Lane Lehigh University College 133

Dan Moran Lehigh University College 141
Ryan Pomrinca Lehigh University College 141
Re McGonagle; it's not all that unusual for a guy to wrestle up somewhere along the way when he's redshirting. Maybe he's got tests coming up the next week and doesn't want to have to suck down right before. It does suggest that he's never going to get down to 133.

I'm more interested in the 133 and 141 attendees. We have two duals remaining. Lane has 18 Div I bouts at 133, so he qualifies for an RPI ranking (note that this doesn't mean that he'll be Top 33; just that he has enough bouts that they'll calculate one). Farro has 14 non-forfeit bouts, so wrestling in one dual gets him to 15. Penn has been forfeiting 133 recently, so there may be just one dual bout remaining at 133. Still, my interpretation is that Lock Haven is the final 133 wrestle-off.

Moran has 13 bouts at 141. Pomrinca also has 13 bouts at 141. Penn forfeited 141 against F&M. So it could be that both wrestlers need Lock Haven to get to the 15-bout threshold for an RPI ranking. Sending both could simply be covering bases, that if one is unable to go at EIWAs that the other might still earn a pre-allocated spot.
7,060,347
Richb-3
Posts: 2329
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:40 am
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by Richb-3 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:28 am

When I looked at Hoffman's Wrestlestat data, it shows his match with Kolodzik as not counting as he was at an RTC, Would that not now count as he is now going NCAA active. (Is the RTC Princeton, Princeton-Rider, P-R-Rutgers, or was he elsewhere?)
Spladle1989
Posts: 2687
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:41 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by Spladle1989 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:05 pm

So theoretically 133 and 141 would have to make weight 3 out of 4 days starting tomorrow (although they would gt 1 pound allowance on friday).

Does the whole field at Lockhaven get 1 pound allowance for tourney since Lockhaven wrestles Cornell saturday?
gimpeltf
Posts: 1705
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:53 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by gimpeltf » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:44 pm

Richb-3 wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:28 am When I looked at Hoffman's Wrestlestat data, it shows his match with Kolodzik as not counting as he was at an RTC, Would that not now count as he is now going NCAA active. (Is the RTC Princeton, Princeton-Rider, P-R-Rutgers, or was he elsewhere?)

I've asked that question a few times, never got an answer.
gimpeltf
Posts: 1705
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:53 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by gimpeltf » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:45 pm

Cornell has 4 listed for Lock Haven.

Most notably Womack at 174
jdalu75
Posts: 2074
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:33 pm
Contact:

Re: Arizona State Preview

Post by jdalu75 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:34 pm

gimpeltf wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:44 pm
Richb-3 wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:28 am When I looked at Hoffman's Wrestlestat data, it shows his match with Kolodzik as not counting as he was at an RTC, Would that not now count as he is now going NCAA active. (Is the RTC Princeton, Princeton-Rider, P-R-Rutgers, or was he elsewhere?)

I've asked that question a few times, never got an answer.
I just had that exchange with Harvard regarding Nolan Hellickson, who was not in school in the fall. We agreed that bouts he wrestled while not in school don't count.

Along similar lines, I had been told that Brown's Theo Powers was in school at the time of the Wilkes Open, and today I was told that was incorrect. That costs Dan Moran a bout, so he's three short of what's needed for an RPI ranking.
7,060,347
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 34 guests