Wrestlestat

Talk about the champions, or the Top 25 nationally-ranked team!
JAD77
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Wrestlestat

Post by JAD77 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:57 am

While I certainly understand they are not the most reliable rankings, after this past weekend, they have Beard at 3rd at 197, and Big Nate at 7th at 285.
They also have Stanich ranked 3rd, though still not as a starter.
Also, Lehigh has jumped to 11th as a tournament team ranking


DF2002
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by DF2002 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:15 pm

JAD77 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:57 am While I certainly understand they are not the most reliable rankings, after this past weekend, they have Beard at 3rd at 197, and Big Nate at 7th at 285.
They also have Stanich ranked 3rd, though still not as a starter.
Also, Lehigh has jumped to 11th as a tournament team ranking
Intermat has had us at 14 for tourney rankings so 11 seems about right after the Cornell match.

If everyone wrestles to their ability and we get some unexpected wins in March, we could turn some heads. Lots of time between now and then so fingers crossed.

Hoping Hines wrestles to his ranking at least and Brignola has a better than expected tournament.
lu90
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by lu90 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:46 pm

DF2002 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:15 pm
JAD77 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:57 am While I certainly understand they are not the most reliable rankings, after this past weekend, they have Beard at 3rd at 197, and Big Nate at 7th at 285.
They also have Stanich ranked 3rd, though still not as a starter.
Also, Lehigh has jumped to 11th as a tournament team ranking
Intermat has had us at 14 for tourney rankings so 11 seems about right after the Cornell match.

If everyone wrestles to their ability and we get some unexpected wins in March, we could turn some heads. Lots of time between now and then so fingers crossed.

Hoping Hines wrestles to his ranking at least and Brignola has a better than expected tournament.
For the first time in a while, we have 4 LEGIT point scorers that may go into Nationals with a Top 8 seed. That doesn't include Hines or Brignola and seeing how light 149 is in EIWA, we could have 7 guys with chances to score some points. We may actually be a better tournament team then dual team (even after beating Cornell AGAIN). Should be fun, definitely Top 15 potential, Top 10 if things fall right.
Dad
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by Dad » Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:52 pm

Would agree that this is the first time in a while that we potentially have multiple legitimate point scorers for NCAAs. Stanich, Crookham, HInes, Beard and Taylor. Outside shot with Brignola. Hines will need to step it up but has shown us that he shines when the lights are brightest (R12).

Don’t think we have had this many since 2018 NCAAs. I believe we had Darian, Scotty, Luke K, Gordon Wolf, Jordan K, Preisch, Weiler and Jordan W score that year. So close to having 5-6 AAs that year. Darian, Scotty and Kutler making the podium.
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by jdalu75 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:55 pm

I'll take WrestleStats' rankings over WIN's any day. They've also updated today. Last week they had Cardenas 6th and Beard 7th. After Saturday? No change.

Makes me really wonder about some folks' thought processes.


If Stanich, Crookham, Beard, and Taylor all wrestle and all win EIWAs; and if Hines and Brignola wrestle and finish 2nd; that's about 120-125 points right there. That'll be good for second place, just from six wrestlers. We need a lot more points from the other four weights to challenge for the team title.

If Cornella, Shapiro, Ramirez, and Foca all win; if Ungar, Arujau, Fernandez at 149, and Cardenas all finish 2nd; Fernandes takes 3rd at 285; that's 165-170 without any contribution from 174. For any team (and Lehigh's in better position than anyone else) to mount a real challenge to Cornell, they'll have to wrestle a great tournament and two of Cornell's top guys will have to collapse.
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jdalu75
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by jdalu75 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:02 pm

Dad wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:52 pm Don’t think we have had this many since 2018 NCAAs. I believe we had Darian, Scotty, Luke K, Gordon Wolf, Jordan K, Preisch, Weiler and Jordan W score that year. So close to having 5-6 AAs that year. Darian, Scotty and Kutler making the podium.
In 2018 we qualified ten for NCAAs and they all scored points. Even Ian Brown, despite his injured neck, managed a consolation win. But the team totaled just 36.5 points because all three places were low (5th, 6th, 7th). In 2019 we had just six scorers but totaled 40.5, with two 4ths and a 7th.
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Richb-3
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by Richb-3 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:55 pm

What if Vito weighs in at EIWA but does not compete? I assume he is a certain WC choice?

What if Vito wrestles and beats Ryan. Does some one give Fix the first seed?
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by jdalu75 » Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:22 pm

Richb-3 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:55 pm What if Vito weighs in at EIWA but does not compete? I assume he is a certain WC choice?
Vito waves au revoir on his way to Gay Paree. New this year, wrestlers must wrestle in two bouts at conference tournaments in order to be considered for a WC.
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whiz wit
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by whiz wit » Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:05 pm

Love the optimism. Two wins over good teams on the weekend and it won't be misplaced.

Btw, so long as discussion of food (particularly incidental to LU wrestling events) doesn't seem to be a capital offense on this site, I can recommend Olive Branch, just slightly up the street from 4th on Broadway. Middle Eastern place. Gets very good reviews. Family restaurant, byo, and real hole in the wall but the food is good and inexpensive. I ordered the lamb shish medium rare and they were cooked just right. Came with a very good rice pilaf with almonds. Going back this Friday as I'll be in town for the two duals. For a 7 p.m. dual it's ideal. Easy to find, easy to park, very close to the campus.
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Re: Wrestlestat

Post by HFO » Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:22 am

From best I can tell Wrestlestat uses some type of Autoregressive moving average type (ARMA) model which relies on cross correlations of wrestlers. It produces an index score. The more data, the more accurate it becomes. So it does become a better tool as the season progresses and it is populated with data. It may not be the best, but come Top 33 and comparing it to RPI 33, it is darn close come tournament time.

125 #3 Stanich...it could be legitimate.
133 #3 Crookham...it is about right, others have him #1
141 #19, #20, #21 Bailey, McGonagle, Hines. Hines still holding down the spot, but it is a battle among them.
149 #29 Griffin...could be overranked at this point, but has some quality wins.197
157 #30 Brignola...fair ranking, still some upside
165 #53 Logan, #56 Herceg...fair ranking. Desperately need a grad transfer for 1 year for 2025. Herceg is STRONG so he is able to handle 174 for rest of year.
174 #132 Lawrence. I just hope he keeps plugging away. A 2x State Champion has talent and he just is not letting it fly.
184 #79 Jack Wilt. There is upside. If he wrestled an entire match the way he wrestled the 3rd period, he is going to be a handful. Needs to not roll around. Got caught a couple of times and was lucky he didn't get pinned.
197 #3 Beard. Keeps winning impressively.
285 #9 Taylor. Still more upside.

3 #3, 6 in Top 20, 9 in Top 33.
Lehigh definitely has to look into grad transfer portal for 165 to 184. They all have 3+ years in room. While solid, if Lehigh is to make another jump next year, it needs incoming talent that is Top 33 ready at 165, 174, 184.
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